Climate myths: Ice cores show CO 2 increases lag behind temperature rises, disproving the link to global warming. A Strong Lead-Lag Correlation Between Temperature And CO2 Changes. As warm water flows north and cools by convective and radiant heat transfer, it absorbs CO2 from air. The instantaneous CO2 mass balance differential equation assuming ocean is well mixed is mCp dX/dt = TR + other inputs – other outputs, where m = mass of ocean and Cp is heat capacity of water. I shall assume they are not rate limiting, and interfacial mass transfer at the surface is. Nov 26, 2020 Gr…, That's why this nonsense is not going to go away.…, So just an FYI: I DON'T DO VIDEOS. CO 2 lags temperature rises in ice core data . Their data sources are impeccable and in the public domain. Feel free to inform your elected officials. Figure 1: 800,000 year atmospheric CO2 concentration and temperature from ice cores. This rigorously accounts for different frequencies. http://www.engineeringtoolbox.com/gases-solubility-water-d_1148.html. And we don't understand what the consequence of that change is. What they did was carry out the sort of statistical analysis which should have been done by the IPCC 30 years ago. Principia Scientific International (PSI) is a not-for-profit community interest association. If TR < 0, transfer is in other direction, from water to air. PPw = Partial pressure CO2 in liquid = f*X*Tw, where f = fugacity, X = CO2 concentration in water and Tw = water T. When Tw increases, solubility decreases and PPw increases. The IPCC states that increasing atmospheric CO2 is the primary cause of global warming - in effect, the IPCC states that the future is causing the past. What they did was carry out the sort of statistical analysis which should have been done by the IPCC 30 years ago. thermometer…, While i agree with you to some extent, you can wat…, Today Bill Gates has the final say! The lag model is yi = f*xi + (1-f)yi-1, a discrete form of low-pass filter or electrical RC circuit. Ask A Climate Scientist - Food Production, NASA Studies How COVID-19 Shutdowns Affect Emissions, Measuring the Seas from Space! If mass transfer rate r is large, lag is small. http://www.nasa.gov/content/goddard/this-september-ask-a-nasa-climate-scientist/. It is a fundamental change to how the earth works and the earth's radiation balance works. This means that the current warming trend is qualitatively different from those we can study through ice cores etc., even if past warming was amplified by a CO2 feedback. The lag proves that rising CO 2 did … Sorry, your blog cannot share posts by email. The measurement is done by inputting T data to a lag model with an assumed lag time constant, τ, and comparing lagged T data output with raw CO2 data. Ocean A = 3.61*10**8 km2. Physics is required to describe and prove cause and effect. It has long been recognized by atmospheric scientists that temperature changes are drivers of CO2 concentration variability. Published on June 13, 2014. The theoretical time lag is Tlag = mCp/r*A*f*Tw. Engineers know the rate of mass transfer of any component, x, across any gas-liquid interface is proportional to the difference between partial pressure of x in liquid and its partial pressure in vapor. For society’s sake. Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Lags Temperature: the Proof. And the reason for that is when the temperature went up, the whole biosphere revved up and emitted CO2, and we had more CO2 in the atmosphere. The natural progression of ice ages and the observed increase in the global average temperature since industrialization have two very different drivers; ice ages are driven by natural triggers, while recent warming is not. Simply put, when oceans warm due to greater solar energy absorption, they outgas dissolved CO2 just like soda water does because CO2 is less soluble in warm water than cold. Back Radiation Greenhouse Effect of 33 Kelvin Possible? CO2 appears to lag. 1280x720 quicktime (56.9 MB) 29.97 fps (for YouTube), 1280x720 quicktime (1.4 GB) 59.94 fps ProRes version for Video Editors, SubRip caption file (for Facebook and YouTube) (1.0 KB), Ask A Climate Scientist - Thinning Ice Sheets, Ask A Climate Scientist - Climate Change and Humans, Ask A Climate Scientist - Extreme Weather and Global Warming. After studying that mechanism in 2009 and Al Gore’s 420,000 years of T and CO2 data in his “Inconvenient Truth” movie and National Geographic June 2007 Big Thaw article and insert, their data confirm it was a lag, not a lead.